It gets tricky because the next time you lose betting this amount, you would then lose your entire profit from the previous win and some of your original wager from the previous bet which puts you at a loss. If you bet $5 your profit might be like $5 if you're lucky, but most of the time it's like $3.50-$4.50, so that's smaller than your wager size. Now for those of us who only bet like $5 or $10 this is where things get complicated and not profitable for us. I think anything north of $100 is good because your profit is going to be over $110 or $120 which means it's greater than your wager amount. Now if you're wagers or unit sizes are in the hundreds or thousands this is where straight bets are better for you than parlays because your profit margins are pretty good. With straight bets the odds aren't juiced enough to really profit on smaller money. I think this is where people who support straight bets get confused at and I think a lot of straight bettors financially have the means to bet heavier than people with very little money who have to grind things out. Keep in mind that this is a simplified example, and actual probabilities can vary depending on the specific bets involved and other factors. So, in this example, the probability of the 3-leg parlay hitting would be 21%. The probability of the 3-leg parlay hitting would be: The probability of the 3-leg parlay hitting is:įor example, if you have three bets with the following winning probabilities: Let's say you have the following individual probabilities for each leg of the parlay:

The probability of the parlay winning is the product of the individual probabilities of each bet.

To calculate the probability of a 3-leg parlay hitting, you need to know the probability of each individual bet winning. In a 3-leg parlay, you are betting on three individual bets (also known as 'legs') to all win.

Parlay betting online reddit